Gulf War 3 | Spring Forward – Fall Back | Shang-I Spy

Charles Fletcher
March 6, 2026
12
min read
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President Trump announces US strikes against Iran, killing the country’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and triggering an explosion of conflict across the Middle East as Iran retaliates. © Newscom / Alamy Stock Photo

Driving the Week

The Prime Minister has had to contend with the most serious international crisis of his premiership this week, as the US and Israel launched an intensive aerial bombing campaign on Iran last Saturday that killed its leader, Ayatollah Khamenei. Although the Government vigorously defended its response to the war in the Gulf, the perception of many, both at home and abroad, is that the conflict has caught Britain on the backfoot. The important RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus was hit by an Iranian drone on Monday, with British jets scrambling to shoot down others across the eastern Mediterranean and Persian Gulf all week. The Government has drawn fire (of the metaphorical kind, this time) from the opposition parties as well as British allies in the region, some of whom host British military bases, for its perceived lack of preparedness and slow response to the crisis. Cypriot High Commissioner Kyriacos Kouros called out what he saw as Britain’s failure to adequately protect the island, stating that Cypriots were “disappointed”, while Kemi Badenoch seized the opportunity to announce that Britain’s allies “think we’re abandoning them” and pushed the Government to join Israel and the US in offensive strikes against Iran. President Trump, who seems unencumbered by any lingering goodwill from his lavish state visit last year, publicly criticised the Prime Minister for not allowing American aircraft to use British bases sooner and lamented that “this is not Winston Churchill that we’re dealing with”. The episode has thrown up awkward questions about the health of the special relationship, something which Starmer has bent over backwards to publicly shore up at every opportunity since Trump returned to office.

The Government has since attempted to wrest control of the narrative, with the Prime Minister stoutly defending his decision-making both in Parliament and at a press conference, where he declared that the Government would “stand by our values and our principles no matter the pressure to do otherwise.” Defence Secretary John Healey also flew to Cyprus on Thursday, where he met with Cypriot counterparts and visited the British bases on the island. In addition, the Ministry of Defence announced the deployment of more jets, helicopters and counter-drone assets to the region, with the Royal Navy sending destroyer HMS Dragon to provide air cover in the eastern Mediterranean. These might help curtail military attacks but will do little to stem the political barrage the Government is facing.

The Week in Stats

10 million – the number of people that had their data stolen when TFL was hacked in 2024, according to the BBC.

54% – the year-on-year increase in London e-scooter rental trips.

125,000 – the number of homes Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar has pledged to deliver if Labour win Scotland’s May election.

£10,535 – the price of the most expensive Spice Girls gold £200 denomination coin.

4 – the number of additional Typhoon jets the Prime Minister is sending to Qatar.

300,000 – households due to benefit from lower water bills as a result of reforms to the WaterSure scheme.

£40,000 – the amount failed asylum seeker families of four will be offered to leave the UK.

1.1% – the OBR’s forecast for the UK’s GDP growth in 2026, down from the 1.4% estimated in the November outlook.

1p – the amount Reform UK have promised to cut off every band of income tax should they win the Welsh election in May.

5% – the pay rise MPs are set to benefit from in April, up to £98,599 a year.

3.5% – the pay rise offered to MPs’ staff from April.

In Case You Missed it

Rachel Reeves delivered the Spring Forecast to the House of Commons on Tuesday after the OBR published its latest Economic and Fiscal Outlook which predicted slower growth and higher unemployment in 2026. In better news for the Chancellor, the forecast predicted a faster drop in inflation than previously projected, and that growth and unemployment will improve over the next few years… all of which may have been thrown out the window by the impact of the war in the Middle East. In a speech that was hastily edited following events over the weekend, the Chancellor confirmed she would be meeting with North Sea industry leaders to discuss the implications of the war, announced that she would be setting out more reforms to give young people the “support and opportunity they deserve”, and noted that she will focus on three major factors effecting the economy in her annual Mais Lecture in two weeks’ time: strengthening global relations and deepening alliances with Europe, backing innovation and harnessing the power of AI, and going further in transforming the economic geography to unlock opportunities across every part of Britain.

In scenes out of a cold war novel, Westminster has been thrown into yet another astonishing spy scandal when the husband of a Labour MP was arrested on suspicion of spying for China. Former Labour special adviser David Taylor was arrested alongside Matthew Aplin, a former Labour press officer, and Steve Jones, a former adviser to the Welsh Labour Government. Joani Reid, the Labour MP for East Kilbride and Strathaven since 2024, is married to David Taylor, and voluntarily suspended herself from the Labour Party on Thursday, denying any involvement with her husband’s business activities. She is not under investigation by the Police.

The Home Secretary announced a series of major immigration reforms this week, in a move aimed at both disincentivising illegal immigration to the UK, and winning back support from voters leaving (or maybe have already left?) for Reform in their droves. As part of the changes, those seeking settlement in the UK will need to speak English as a foreign language to A-Level standard, those who work illegally or don’t follow the law will have their accommodation and financial support removed, the Government will pilot offering £10,000 per person for failed asylum seekers who leave voluntarily, and study visas will no longer be issued to people from Afghanistan, Cameroon, Myanmar and Sudan. She angered a number on her own backbenches by criticising the UK’s support system as being “more attractive” to those seeking refugee status than in other European nations.

Josh Simons resigned as Cabinet Office Minister, following accusations that Labour Together – the think tank he ran before his election in 2024 - commissioned a PR firm to investigate the personal lives of journalists who had been critical of Keir Starmer. James Frith has been appointed to the role, which has the unenviable responsibility of rolling out the Government's Digital ID scheme. Baroness Anderson of Stoke-on-Trent has also been appointed Parliamentary Secretary in the Cabinet Office.

Ashley Dalton stepped down as Public Health and Prevention Minister, to enable her to focus on representing her constituency while she continues to receive oral chemotherapy treatment for breast cancer. Sharon Hodson, who served as Shadow Public Health Minister for four years in Opposition, has been appointed to the role.

Parties in Scotland and Wales were gearing up for the May elections this week. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar addressed the Scottish Labour Party Conference, in which he announced a Scottish Labour Government would introduce a “Train Here, Stay Here” policy where any Scottish medical, nursing or dental student who takes a funded place at a Scottish university would need to work in Scotland’s NHS or social care system for five years or repay tuition and bursaries. Plaid Cymru Leader Rhun ap Iorwerth addressed his party’s conference, in which he announced a Plaid Government would create ten surgical hubs to tackle NHS waiting lists and appoint a Minister with direct responsibility for prevention across Government. Meanwhile Reform UK launched their Welsh manifesto, which includes policies to take 1p off all rates of income tax, create a dedicated Minister for Industry, scrap net zero in devolved policy, ban new onshore wind farms and launch a Welsh Industrial Strategy.

Around 300,000 low-income households are set to benefit from lower water bills due to an overhaul of the WaterSure scheme. Low-income households - who must have a water meter, and either have a specific medical condition or three or more children living at home - who use high amounts of water can qualify to have their bills capped. 260,000 households already benefit from the scheme, saving an average of £325 each, and the change will expand the eligibility criteria to include a further 53,000 low-income households receiving disability benefits.

Nigel Farage held yet another press conference this week, continuing his party’s tactic of eschewing Parliament for the greater coverage created through a press event. He criticised the Government’s inaction on Iran as “frankly pathetic” and advocated for the use of the RAF, Royal Navy and intelligence to support the USA and Israel, but said he would not be rushed into appointing spokespeople for foreign affairs and defence. Alongside Treasury spokesperson Robert Jenrick, he also argued the UK should be producing “as much oil and gas” as possible, and confirmed Reform would “carefully unpick” the Employment Rights Act and Renters’ Rights Act.

The MOD announced the Armed Forces’ new medium helicopter contract, selecting Leonardo’s AW149 for the role. The agreement enables future international military orders to be built in the UK to help establish the UK as the export base for the AW149, and make Leonardo in Yeovil, the ‘global centre of excellence for autonomous helicopters’. Meanwhile, industry continue to wait for the publication of the Defence Investment Plan they were originally told would be published before Christmas.

Kemi Badenoch criticised the Government’s “weak” response in support of the USA’s actions against Iran in a speech at Policy Exchange, and called for the need for “muscular conservatism” which she defined as keeping the things that are “good about our society”. She also outlined her plans to “deal with separatism, culture and integration”, including a new Cultural and Integration Commission followed by an Integration and Cohesion Plan, and announced she had commissioned work on Islamist extremism in the UK.

People convicted of child cruelty offences will be placed on a register under new amendments to the Crime and Policing Bill tabled this week. The changes will ensure that adults ‘who subject children in their care to cruel, heartless crimes, such as neglect and abandonment, will be more closely monitored by police and face similar restrictions as registered sex offenders – reducing the chances of reoffending and providing better protection to children.'

Highlights from Parliament

While there were no Urgent Questions on the green benches this week, it was still a busy one for Ministerial Statements, with the conflict in the Middle East dominating proceedings and the Chancellor delivering her Spring Forecast Statement on Tuesday. The voting age being reduced to 16 took a step closer this week as the Representation of the People Bill completed its second reading in the Commons on Monday. The Bill would also make voter registration into a more automated system and seeks to tighten regulations on political finance to void foreign interference in UK politics. Wednesday saw the fourth Estimates’ Day debate of this parliament, with spending by the FCDO, MOD and DBT all discussed.

The House of Lords had another legislation-heavy week as the Tobacco and Vapes Bill completed its report stage on Tuesday, proposing to ban anyone born in or after 2009 from purchasing tobacco products. Meanwhile, in the Grand Committee, the English Devolution and Community Empowerment Bill continued its progress, aiming to shift power away from Whitehall to local regions across England by strengthening mayoral powers and creating ‘strategic authorities’ to oversee key areas of local government and planning. Elsewhere, the Medical Training Act, which will prioritise graduates from British medical schools for training places, alongside the Rare Cancers Act and the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Act, all received Royal Assent.

Polls and Think Tanks

Do you know who Clara Zetkin is? If you answered yes, congratulations! You are already ahead of around 90% of the country. New polling from YouGov has found that 89% of people have never heard of the German activist who first proposed International Women’s Day back in 1910, highlighting the relatively low awareness of many historic women’s rights figures among the British public. Recognition, however, rises sharply for figures closer to home: 78% say they have heard of Emmeline Pankhurst, and just 4% admit to never having heard of Florence Nightingale (thanks, Year 7 history lessons). Just 1% say they’ve never heard of Margeret Thatcher, though recognition, in her case, does not necessarily translate into affection…

The Green Party have plenty more to smile about this week, as the latest voting intention poll from YouGov placed them, for the first time ever, in second place. Ranked at 21%, this marks the party’s highest ever showing for YouGov and is enough to place them right behind Reform UK on 23%. Both Labour and the Conservative Party lag behind in joint third place at 16%, while the Liberal Democrats trail on 14%. Not just one MP richer, the Greens are also now the most popular party in all age categories under 50, with 49% of 18 to 24-year-olds and 27% of 25 to 49-year-olds backing the party as the top choice.

Britain’s foreign policy is in need of a new ‘grand strategy', according to the IPPR, who, in a new report, have argued that while Labour have successfully rebuilt Britain’s diplomatic profile through deals on trade, migration and defence, domestic challenges over the past decade have deep international roots. The report helpfully suggests three possible approaches: ‘A modern special relationship’, focused on US alignment, NATO and Five Eyes cooperation; ‘Global Britain 2.0’, concentrated on the pursuit of diversified partnerships across the Indo-Pacific, Gulf and Commonwealth; or a ‘Pivot to Europe’, anchoring the UK in Europe’s emerging security and economic ecosystem.

While we’re on the subject… British voters appear in no rush for a wider conflict in the Middle East, with initial polling having found the majority of Britons (49%) opposed to the recent strikes on Iran, compared to 23% in favour. Unsurprisingly, attitudes are distinctly split by party, with the majority of Reform UK voters (58%) and 49% of Tories backing the strikes, while the majority of Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters remain largely opposed.

You’ve Got to Laugh

Drill baby, drill, has often been the message from the Conservatives when discussing energy policy, as they have increasingly been discussing the need to increase drilling in the North Sea, and Thursday’s Ministerial statement on the energy markets was no exception. This contrast to a Labour Government’s commitment net zero might prove difficult to some policy makers, however two backbench MPs seemed to find a solution to the conundrum this week. Following the statement, Lichfield MP Dave Robertson suggested that the “hot air” from the Conservatives could be a new renewable energy source and enough to heat 100 homes. Sensing that the Opposition might not like this comment, Robertson’s neighbour, Oliver Ryan, stepped in calling for the Secretary of State to “get it drilled”. Now that must be a policy they can get behind…

Scaramouch Scaramouche, will you do the Fandango? For 40 or so MPs it turns out the answer is yes, as they tapped into their inner Ed Balls this week (and no, not by tweeting their own names), as former Strictly Come Dancing contestants Angela Rippon and Alex Kingston came to Parliament to hold a dance class to promote the advantages of dance for health and wellbeing.  The event, organised by Speaker Lindsay Hoyle, saw MPs from across the political spectrum take place, with new MP Hannah Spencer quickly going from ballot-to-ballet (despite not yet having spoken in the Commons). But cha’ bet holding a dance class in the middle of an international crisis would draw criticism, with Your Party MP Zarah Sultana and Reform UK MP Lee Anderson agreeing for once, criticising the event and suggesting colleagues quick-step it back to work.

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