White smoke: Pope Leo XIV, American Cardinal Robert Francis Prevost, is announced successor to Pope Francis on the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica © Independent Photo Agency Srl / Alamy Stock Photo
It’s been a big week for international trade… After weeks of US tariffs dominating global headlines, the UK leapt into the spotlight by striking a deal with President Trump. Marking the 80th anniversary of VE Day, the US President held a televised call with Keir Starmer to promote the agreement, presenting it as a move that places UK-US relations on stronger footing. Under the deal, UK steel exports to the US will be tariff-free, along with certain aviation parts and a reduction on tariffs for 100,000 British-made cars per year. In return, the UK will scrap its 20% tariff on US beef exports, with the first 13,000 tonnes now tariff-free. It was also later revealed that British Airways have agreed to purchase £10bn worth of aircraft from Boeing. Responding to the deal, Treasury Minister Darren Jones called it a “huge relief” while Chancellor Rachel Reeves described it as a “good deal”. Not one to be left out, Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch labelled it a “small tariff deal”, arguing the UK is still in a worse situation than it was in March before Trump’s Liberation Day.
The Government also delivered a long-awaited trade deal with India, which will see Indian tariffs slashed and reductions locked in on 90% of tariff lines – 85% of which will become fully tariff-free within a decade. The agreement, which aims to make it easier for UK firms to export whisky and cars, has the potential to increase bilateral trade by £25.5 billion, UK GDP by £4.8 billion and wages by £2.2 billion each year in the long run. Announcing the trade deal, the PM described it as the “biggest trade deal” since Brexit and said it would build on the two countries existing relationship. The opposition was quick to criticise the agreement however , branding it as “two-tier taxes from two-tier Keir” with Shadow Trade Secretary Andrew Griffith arguing that Britian “loses” every time Labour negotiates.
As pope, Francis led a Catholic Church which, by his admission, sought to speak up for the suffering, poor and displaced. He has been described as one of the most progressive popes in history, but also maintained the church’s involvement in high-level diplomacy, such as its significant involvement in the normalisation of US-Cuban relations in 2016. As such, his successor must now determine what direction to take the church in. In a surprisingly quick turnaround of just two days, the conclave decided 69-year-old Chicago-born Robert Francis Prevost, who took the papal name Leo XIV, will be the man to do so.
Many commentators had suggested that Francis may have been the first in a new generation of Catholic leadership, one that reflects its majority non-European membership. It had been theorised that this conclave may see the election of the first African pope, and leading progressive cardinals in South Korea and the Philippines were also seen as likely candidates. With the election of Leo, it appears the cardinals struck a middle ground – an American who also has Peruvian citizenship, and who has been a steadfast proponent of the Church’s Latin American members.
America’s first successor to Saint Peter will perhaps not be the diplomatic coup the Trump Administration and America’s conservative-leaning Catholics may have hoped. In his opening papal message, Leo said he would prioritise bridge-building and missionary work, and continue the broader legacy of Pope Francis. While he is not believed to be as progressive as Francis (few top cardinals would wholeheartedly endorse Francis’ statement that he would not judge LGBT Catholics), Leo has long echoed his predecessor’s views on migration, speaking out in support of Latin migrants seeking to reach USA.
This has already led him to clash with the Trump administration. In February, he criticised the administration’s top Catholic, sharing an article entitled ‘JD Vance is wrong: Jesus doesn’t ask us to rank our love for others.’ He has also criticised El Salvador’s President, Nayib Bukele, a close Trump ally, over his involvement with the deportation of a US resident; and in 2018 said there was ‘nothing remotely Christian’ about the Trump policy of family separation of migrants. It is easy for senior church leaders to make such statements; as the de-facto leader of a nation, it is quite another thing for the pope to do so. Francis, too, had a difficult relationship with Argentina’s leaders upon his accession, and he never visited his home country as pope. Pope Leo XIV must now determine how he will walk this line.
677 – Reform UK councillors following last week’s local elections.
674 – local councillors lost by the Conservatives in the elections.
0% – tariffs placed on UK steel exported to the US, following the announcement of the UK/US trade deal.
4 – ballots held in the papal conclave, before Pope Leo XIV was selected.
100,000 – new GP appointments expected in Scotland by March next year, announced in their Programme for Government.
£563m – funding given to Rolls Royce for the maintenance of the EJ200 engines that power the RAF’s Typhoon aircraft.
£4.8bn – expected growth to the economy following the India trade deal announced on Monday.
4.25% – new interest rate following the Bank of England’s decision to reduce it from 4.5%
British Defence will be the “engine of national renewal” according to the Prime Minister, as he delivered a keynote speech at the London Defence Conference. Arguing that Defence was the “central organising principle of Government”, the PM also set out his desire for the UK to “seize on the Defence dividend” and achieve economic growth, said that the “future belongs to innovators”; and announced a £563m contract for Rolls-Royce to maintain Britain’s fleet of Typhoons.
The Bank of England cut interest rates to 4.25%, the lowest rate for two years. In the second of a potential five cuts this year, the Monetary Policy Committee was relatively divided on the decision, as five voted for a 0.25 percentage point cut while two voted for rates to stay the same, and two voted for a further cut to 4%.
Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping stood side-by-side at Russia’s ‘Victory Day’ commemorations to mark the end of World War II. A total of 27 world leaders attended the event, including those from Brazil, Venezuela, Serbia and Slovakia. Military contingents from North Korea, Vietnam and Mongolia were also in attendance.
‘Cowardly criminals’ could face an additional two years in jail, as the Victims and Courts Bill was introduced to Parliament this week. It contains several new provisions, including new powers for judges to hand down punishments such as additional time in jail, confinement in a cell, or the stripping of privileges such as extra gym time.
Peak rail fares will be scrapped in Scotland, as the Scottish Government released its ‘Programme for Government’ this week. Other announcements include 100,000 enhanced service GP appointments by March 2026 for key risk factors including obesity and smoking; a cost-of-living guarantee including free tuition for students and free prescriptions; restoring winter fuel payments for pensioners; ‘more rights and stronger protections for tenants’; and the publication of a joint offshore wind skills action plan in the autumn.
London’s green belt could be built on, with London Mayor Sadiq Khan delivering a speech on Friday in which he argued the status quo was “wrong, out-of-date and simply unsustainable”. A consultation has been launched on the next London Plan, which sets out the Mayor’s vision for how the capital will develop over the next 20 to 25 years. Its key objectives are to ‘fix the housing crisis and deliver sustainable economic growth while protecting and improving the environment.’
The Government is facing a potential rebellion over its planned cuts to welfare, with reports that up to 80 Labour MPs are urging the Government to delay the proposed cuts to at least the autumn. A letter sent to the Government, and signed by 42 MPs, said the cuts ‘represent the biggest attack on the welfare state’ since austerity under David Cameron, and warns that ‘without a change in direction, the [welfare] green paper will be impossible to support’.
Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer confirmed she wouldn’t be standing for re-election in the Green Party leadership election this year, saying she wants to focus on her role as an MP. The announcement came after London Assembly Member Zack Polanski launched a leadership campaign, accused the current leaders of being ‘too polite’, and called on the UK to leave NATO. The party’s other current co-leader Adrian Ramsay is yet to confirm whether he’ll stand again.
Tuesday afternoon saw Sarah Pochin sworn in as an MP, having won the Runcorn and Helsby by-election last week. Last weekend we also saw the full local election results, in which Reform UK were the biggest winners, with 677 councillors (now 674 for various reasons) and control of 10 Councils. The Lib Dems won 370 councillors and 3 councils, while the Conservatives and Labour won 319 and 98 councillors respectively, decreases of 674 and 187 compared to the same wards in 2021.
It’s been a busy week for the Department of Business and Trade in the House of Commons, as Trade Minister Douglas Alexander delivered two ministerial statements outlining the Government’s progress on securing trade deals with India and the US. Turning to Westminster Hall, MPs had the opportunity to debate a wide range of topics, from barriers to defence sector financing and the development of new nuclear projects in Wales, to the potential merits of Government support for small abattoirs.
Meanwhile in the House of Lords, the Government’s Data (Use and Access) Bill completed its passage this week, seeking to modernise how data is used and accessed across public and private sectors. The Bill will now enter the final stages where any amendments will be considered. The Renters’ Rights Bill, Sentencing Guidelines (Pre-sentence) Reports Bill, Property (Digital Assets etc) and Employment Rights Bill all continued their passage through the chamber. Meanwhile, peers were given the opportunity to question the Government on topics such as steps to tackle knife crime, UK energy grid resilience, approaches to reducing energy prices for energy intensive industries and the assessment of the increased risk of wildfires caused by climate change.
Labour are on course to lose control of the Welsh Parliament for the first time ever next year, if current polls play out. Two polls published this week have very different predictions but all show a collapse in support for both Labour and the Conservatives. Survation’s latest poll still gives Labour the lead on 27% but with Plaid Cymru and Reform close behind – both on 24%; whilst YouGov’s latest MRP poll puts Plaid Cymru out in front on 30%, Reform in second on 25% and Labour a distant third on 18%. Both put the Tories way down on 15% and 13% respectively in what could be a cataclysmic result for the party’s 16 members of the Senedd.
Half of Brits say there are no circumstances under which they would go to war for their country, in positive news for the Kremlin this week… Ipsos’ latest poll on the state of the UK Armed Forces and defence spending found just 35% would be willing under certain circumstances, whilst 48% would outright refuse. Handily, 55% believe the Armed Forces can defend Britain against an attack, whilst 43% support further increases in defence spending even if this means additional taxes or cuts in other areas.
53,000 prison places are required over the next decade to solve the prison crisis – that’s the recommendation in Policy Exchange’s latest report out this week, backed by the former Chief inspector of Prisons. The number is far greater than the Government’s pledge to build an additional 14,000 places by 2031. The report also reveals the ease at which drugs are being smuggled into prisons and the high use of ‘bang up’ where inmates are held in their cells for 22 hours a day due to overcrowding, lack of staff and bad behaviour.
White smoke and white robes – yes, a new Pope has been elected in Rome, but not before Donald Trump managed to steal a moment of divine spotlight. An AI-generated image of the President decked out in full papal regalia, white cassock, crucifix and all, appeared on his Truth Social account earlier this week, looking ready to deliver mass at Mar-a-Lago. When asked about the heavenly upload, Trump denied responsibility, blaming “maybe” AI and noted that Melania thought the image was “cute”. At least he hasn’t declared himself infallible…yet.
Meanwhile back on British soil Alistair Carmichael has confirmed that ‘Agent Truss’ was such a spectacular (or shall we say disastrous?) success that it’s time for phase two of the Liberal Democrat ‘get former members into other parties’ leadership to enact the maddest policy possible’ programme. The next covert operative? Green Party leadership frontrunner and former Lib Dem member Zack Polanski, who has just called for the UK to leave NATO. Peace, love, and…ditching defence alliances?
And finally… in case you missed it Arnold Schwarzenegger shared a picture this week of himself, Danny Devito and…yes, Tony Blair… proving that even climate change talks need a star-studded cast.
