Vive la France! | One in One out | Emergency Budget?

Charles Fletcher
July 11, 2025
10
min read
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Entente Industrielle: Keir Starmer greets Emmanuel Macron outside Downing Street on Wednesday during his state visit to the UK this week © Stephen Chung / Alamy Stock Photo

Driving the Week

The UK and France announced a 'major deal to crack down on illegal Channel crossings', the Home Office announced this week – the big announcement coming out of President Macron’s state visit to the UK. The two countries will trial a pilot scheme that will see small boat arrivals being returned to France, in return for a new legal route that will see an equal number of migrants come to the UK from France – ‘fully documented and subject to strict security checks'. The announcement came on the final day of Macron’s three day visit during which he was met by the Prince and Princess of Wales at RAF Northolt, took part in a carriage procession through Windsor, dined at a state banquet in his honour at Windsor Castle, and another hosted by the Lord Mayor of London.

When not dressed in white tie and taking part in the pomp and circumstance we Brits do oh so well, the Prime Minister and President found time for length discussions on defence, foreign policy and economic growth. Of particular note in the current foreign policy climate, and context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and an unpredictable US President, they agreed an Entente Industrielle between the two nations, announcing a series of new partnerships under a refreshed Lancaster House agreement. Under the agreement, the UK and France will deepen their cooperation on nuclear deterrents, launch a Combined Joint Force, and enhance industrial co-operation, all in support of a stronger NATO. Similarly, the Government announced it will be investing a further €163m in French-led Eutelsat Group to retain it’s 10% shareholding, as part of the increased collaboration on security and defence with France.

And finally, the two leaders found time to host a call with members of the Coalition of the Willing, including President Zelenskyy, on continued support for Ukraine and further pressure on Russia. They were joined by United States Special Presidential Envoy, Keith Kellogg, and Senators Graham and Blumenthal – dialling in from the Ukraine Recovery Conference in Rome – the first time representatives of the United States have joined in the Coalition of the Willing meeting. The meeting confirmed plans to draw up a collective plan to support Ukrainian public finances next year, and on Friday President Trump announced he will make a “major statement” on Russia on Monday, when Kellogg will reportedly be visiting Ukraine.

The Week in Stats

230ft – the length of the Bayeux tapestry, set to go on display at the British Museum in 2026 following a UK-France agreement marking its first return to the UK in 900 years.

3 – number of official UK heatwaves recorded in 2025 so far.

55,000 – tennis balls used during the Wimbledon Championship period.

0.1% – fall in UK GDP in May 2025, driven by falling manufacturing output.

220 – the number of migrants that reached Dover yesterday amid UK-France talks on the ‘one in, one out’ deal.

4-0 – score of England’s win over the Netherland’s on Wednesday, in the Women’s Euro 2025 group stage.

£1bn – worth of investment deals from French companies into the UK.

In Case You Missed it

The Office for Budget Responsibility published a report on fiscal risks which made for pretty grim reading. According to the report, the UK’s public finances have emerged from a series of major global economic shocks in a relatively vulnerable position, and efforts to put the UK’s public finances on a more sustainable footing have met with only limited and temporary success. The report goes on to state that there has been a substantial erosion of the UK’s capacity to respond to future shocks and growing pressures on the public finances, and that the scale and array of risks to the UK fiscal outlook remains “daunting”. Lovely light weekend reading…

Sunday 7th September at 3pm… that’s when the Government will next test its Emergency Alert system by sending an alert to 87 million mobile phones across the country. The last (and first) test took place over two years ago and the Government are hoping technical improvements will see it reach more people after mixed results. The announcement came alongside the publication of a new Resilience Action Plan which the Cabinet Office hopes will help prepare people for future nationwide emergencies and events.

Google agreed a new partnership with the Government which will see Google Cloud offer tech support to help modernise government services millions of people use every day, such as the NHS and services from local councils. In addition, Google DeepMind will collaborate with technical experts in government to support them in deploying and diffusing new emerging technologies; and Government departments will be supported to leave 'ball and chain' tech contracts 'where companies have made it too difficult to transfer data to modern systems'. Up to 100,000 civil servants will also be upskilled in AI and digital through a new Google Cloud training programme.

Families experiencing pregnancy loss before 24 weeks will be entitled to protected bereavement leave under new measures introduced to the Employment Rights Bill. This announcement came as a result of campaign led by Chair of the Women and Equalities Committee Sarah Owen and follows the launch of the landmark Parental Leave and Pay Review, 'which will look at ways to fix the parental leave system for millions of parents so that it delivers a better start to life for all children.’

Five strategic road schemes in the north and Midlands, and five key rail upgrades across the country were given the green light this week as part of plans to invest in transport infrastructure 'outside of London and the South East’. The rail upgrades include reinstating a passenger rail line between Bristol city centre and Portishead, delivering 3 new train stations in the South West and Yorkshire, and funding the Midlands Rail Hub.

James McMurdock MP lost the Reform party whip after a Sunday Times investigation raised questions over tens of thousands of pounds worth of loans he took out under a COVID-19 support scheme. The Reform UK MP denied any wrongdoing, but confirmed he asked to have the whip suspended as a "precautionary measure".

Foreign Secretary David Lammy became the first Minister in 14 years to visit Syria, as he announced the UK has re-established diplomatic relations with the country following the collapse of the Assad regime eight months ago. The Foreign Sec met with the Syrian President and Foreign Minister as well as the Syrian Civil Defence volunteers, also known as the White Helmets, where he unveiled a £94.5m package to 'provide urgent humanitarian aid to Syrians, support Syria’s longer-term recovery through education and livelihoods, and support countries hosting Syrian refugees in the region.'

The electricity market will move to a new ‘reformed national pricing’ system, after Energy Secretary Ed Miliband announced they would not be moving to zonal pricing this week. Announcing his decision, he stated the move ‘will create a fairer, cheaper, more secure, and more efficient energy system'. As part of future plans, he will review the Transmission Network Use of System charges to make existing charges 'more predicable for investors', and work to improve the efficiency of the power system, through infrastructure upgrades to 'get more renewable electricity onto the grid.

The Health Secretary has branded the junior doctors strike “unreasonable” and “unnecessary” after the BMA announced new strikes for five days at the end of July. In a statement to MPs, Wes Streeting highlighted the recent 28.9% pay rise under the Labour Government, and noted that first year resident doctors are paid on average £43,275 in their first year – rising by £9,000 to £52,300 in their second year, criticising the BMA for having lost the public’s support. Robert Winston – one of the country’s best known doctors and a pioneer of IVF treatment, who was appointed a Labour peer in 1995 – quit the BMA this week, highlighting his “very serious concerns” about the way the trade union has been run.

Highlights from Parliament

In the penultimate full sitting week in the Commons before Summer Recess, MPs took a close look at a number of pieces of legislation, including the Pension Schemes Bill, the Football Governance Bill, and the one that’s been causing the most trouble for the Government – the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill (now just the Universal Credit Bill). With it now having cleared the Commons, it’s listed to have just one day in the House of Lords (22 July) for Peers to scrutinise it…

The Lords will be in good practice of passing bills by then, having spent the past week considering key pieces of the Government’s agenda. This includes the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, the Renters’ Rights Bill, and the Product Regulation and Metrology Bill. They also continued their consideration of the House of Lords (Hereditary Peers) Bill, with this also due to become an Act before heading off for Summer.

President Macron of France delivered a speech to Parliament as part of his State Visit this week, that sadly for comedians did not seem to include any references to Ello Ello. He used his speech to repeat his unwavering support for Ukraine, praising Keir Starmer for launching the Coalition of the Willing with him earlier this year. He also addressed the elephant in the room of illegal migration across the Channel, noting France the UK’s “shared responsibility” to address it with “humanity, solidarity and fairness”. He is unlikely to have endeared himself to President Trump any further, by calling on all European nations to reduce their “excessive dependencies on both the US and China”.

Polls and Think Tanks

GP services are showing signs of improvement, according to the latest GP Patient Survey by Ipsos. Overall, 75.4% of patients rated their experience as good – an increase of 1.5% from 2024. Additionally, 52.9% said it was easy to contact their GP practice by phone, up by 3.2%. As the Government seeks to expand use of the NHS App, the findings will be encouraging, as patients who used the app more frequently were more likely to report a good overall experience (73.6%).

While the future of a potential new left-wing party led by Jeremy Corbyn remains uncertain, it already appears to have a base of potential support. A new YouGov poll finds that 18% of Britons say they would consider voting for a party led by the former Labour leader. For comparison, 24% say they would consider voting for the Conservatives, while 28% say the same for the Green Party, Reform UK, and the Liberal Democrats respectively. Much of the potential support for Corbyn’s new party comes from current Green voters – 58% of those who backed the Greens in the 2024 election say they would consider switching – while 31% of Labour voters say the same.

“Britain is not a socially mobile country,” argues the latest report from the IPPR. The report sets out a new framework for rethinking social mobility, outlining key principles aimed at renewing and reclaiming the concept. It also presents three practical examples of how these principles could be applied to critical stages in a young person’s journey from education to employment.

You’ve Got to Laugh

Timing is everything in comedy… and it turns out in politics too, as the Speaker demonstrated with, we can only assume, unintentional comedic perfection this week. After the usual to-and-fro between the two main party leaders, the PM was asked a question on covid loan fraud that, with zero-intended subtlety, pointed the finger at recently de-whipped Reform MP James Murdock. The PM responded that the Government was going after “the fraudsters, the grifters, the con-artists, no matter who they are or where we find them”… only for the Speaker to immediately select the next MP to ask a question… “Nigel Farage!”. It’s safe to say this opportunity wasn’t wasted by many in the Chamber, so much so that Tory MP turned Reform Chief Whip Lee Anderson MP can be heard telling a heckler to “shut up!”

Get ready for an emergency budget next week… if Rachel Reeves of three years ago is to be believed. Full credit to former leader of the Scottish Conservative Party and now Peer, Ruth Davidson for pointing out that in May 2022, after a month of no growth and then a “dramatic” fall in GDP of 0.1%, the then Shadow Chancellor tweeted that the Government would have failed if they returned from their away day with “anything less than an emergency budget”. As fate would have it, three years later and the very Cabinet the now Chancellor is a part of are also on an away day… on the same day the ONS announced the economy contracted by – you guessed it – 0.1%. Even worse for the Chancellor, the fall in growth is the second month in a row, with last month seeing an even greater fall of 0.3%. Something tells us however, that the Chancellor won’t be emerging from No 11 with the red box on Monday…

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