Plaid Cymru's newly elected Senedd member Lindsay Whittle celebrates at Caerphilly Castle after victory for the party in the Caerphilly Senedd by-election © PA Images
By-elections always operate under different rules… just not normally this different. After the bombshell result in Caerphilly in the wee hours of Friday morning, it’s difficult to overestimate how much of a significant moment in British politics we just witnessed, and quite how the plates are shifting more dramatically than we’ve seen for a very long time. Whilst not downplaying their victory, the fact that Plaid Cymru had their best chance ever of winning this time round shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone: Plaid have routinely held second place in the constituency since the first Senedd vote in 1999, with newly elected Lindsay Whittle coming within 1,600 votes of winning the seat for the party back in 2016. What is dramatic is the complete reversal in Labour’s fortunes, the total collapse of the Conservative vote, and the remarkable increase in support for Reform UK. Plaid and Reform – the two leading parties in the fight for the election; the only parties it’s been clear for weeks had any chance of winning the seat, shared over 83% of the vote between them… Now contrast that to the fact they hold fewer than 25% of the seats in the Senedd currently… or even more dramatically, fewer than 1.5% of the seats in Westminster…
By-elections regularly give us unorthodox and at times completely offbeat results that knock leading parties out of their comfort zone. The Bromley and Chislehurst by-election of 2006* saw a dramatic fall in both Tory and Labour votes during which the Lib Dems almost took the seat; the Glasgow East by-election in 2008 saw Labour lose what was previously one of its safest seats in the country to the SNP; and the 2021 by-election in North Shropshire saw the Lib Dems surge through to take the seat from the Conservatives; but in none of these cases were both Labour and the Conservatives clearly completely out of the running… not just on the night – but weeks ahead of polling day.
Labour’s vote dropped by 72% since the last Senedd election in 2021, and whilst having slightly broader boundaries, Labour comfortably won the UK Parliamentary election in the seat just last year. The Tories were never going to win in Caerphilly, but still it’s not unnoticeable that they lost 86% of the votes they won in 2021, and whilst the caveat of slightly different boundaries again applies, their support has similarly plummeted since July 2024. Those who lost will try to pass it off as “typical by-election result” to downplay the damage; but with less than 7 months until the full Senedd election and 3.5 years until the next UK Parliament elections, the threat facing the two parties who have dominated British politics for a century, is greater than it has ever been… with very little time to do much about it.
* Quiz Question: Which two leading politicians stood for election at the Bromey and Chislehurst By-election in 2006? Answer at the bottom of this email.
47% - the percentage of votes Plaid Cymru picked up in the Caerphilly by-election, with Reform UK coming second, with 36%
£24.1 million – the cost to Police Scotland of Trump’s state visit in July
£400 million – the new investment into the Oxford-Cambridge Corridor to boost development of affordable homes and infrastructure in Cambridge
5 – the number of survivors in the Grooming Gangs Scandal calling for Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips MP to quit
£20.2 billion – the amount of Government borrowing in September 2025
£6 billion – the figure the Chancellor pledged to save firms this week at the Regional Investment Summit, through removing bureaucracy and red tape
Education Secretary and Deputy Labour Leader hopeful Bridget Phillipson announced that the undergraduate tuition fee cap will rise in line with inflation from 2026. The increase will apply across all higher education providers for two years, with the Government set to introduce legislation to ensure the cap automatically adjusts with inflation thereafter. In the same statement, Phillipson outlined further details of the newly announced V-level qualification and confirmed that students most in need will be eligible for a new maintenance loan funded by a levy on international student fees.
Former Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner delivered her resignation speech in Parliament ahead of the Renters’ Rights Bill completing its final stages. While Prime Minister Keir Starmer was absent, several Cabinet Ministers were in attendance, including Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Justice Secretary David Lammy, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, and Rayner’s replacement as Housing Secretary, Steve Reed. In her statement, Rayner acknowledged that she had not paid enough tax when buying her flat in Hove and expressed hope that her situation would raise awareness of the complex tax rules faced by divorced parents with disabled children.
For the first time in five centuries, the monarch of England and the leader of the Catholic Church were seen praying together. During a visit to the Sistine Chapel, King Charles and Queen Camilla attended a service led by Pope Leo, joining him in prayer – a symbolic act closing a divide first opened by Charles’s many-greats-uncle during the Reformation.
Emergency measures to “ramp up” housebuilding in London have been announced. With construction in the capital having stalled due to a combination of factors – including the impact of Covid-19, high interest rates, rising construction costs, and regulatory barriers – Housing Sec Steve Reed unveiled a new package of initiatives to fast-track development. The plan includes the creation of the City Hall Developer Investment Fund, backed by £322 million, to enable the Mayor to further boost housebuilding across London.
The first Regional Investment Summit was held in Birmingham this week, with over £10 billion in investment commitments announced across life sciences, sport, education, and manufacturing. The event also saw the launch of Sterling 20, a new investor-led partnership of 20 major UK pension funds and insurers aimed at channelling billions of pounds in savings into key infrastructure and high-growth sectors.
The Prime Minister is hosting President Zelenskyy and the NATO Secretary General today in the latest attempt to deliver European security guarantees for Ukraine. This round of frenetic diplomacy was driven by the news that Trump and Putin planned to meet in Budapest imminently, and Trump’s meeting with Zelenskyy in which he once again suggested Ukraine had no choice but to cede territory. However, in true Trump style, the meeting with Putin has since been abruptly cancelled.
The Government has published its first-ever national plan to recruit the workforce needed for its clean energy mission, setting out how it intends to supply the sector with 400,000 workers over the next five years. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband emphasised that the plans is “pro-worker, pro-jobs and pro-union” and will help “create an economy in which there is no need to leave your hometown just to find a decent job.”
Four grooming gang victims have withdrawn from the inquiry panel and demanded the resignation of Safeguarding Minister Jess Phillips, saying they had lost confidence in her after she denied accusations the scope of the inquiry is being widened beyond strict group-based child sexual exploitation and abuse. However, seven other survivors reiterated their support for Phillips and stated they would only remain engaged if she stayed in the role.
Keeping politics out of football failed, as it so often does, when the Government criticised a local policing decision not to permit Maccabi Tel Aviv fans to attend a Europa League match against Aston Villa next month due to the risk of violence. Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy labelled the decision “wrong” and Maccabi later declared it would decline any ticket allocation if the decision were reversed.
An illegal migrant who was deported to France under the one-in, one-out deal returned to the UK…on a small boat. The Home Office insisted he would be ‘fast-tracked’ back out of the country. Someone set a timer for his next attempt.
A decision on the next stage of Heathrow expansion will be made by the end of November, with the Transport Secretary weighing up the two final development bids. She also confirmed the timeline of the Airports National Policy Statement review, which will be consulted upon. However, the Environmental Audit Committee warned that airport expansion will bust the UK’s emissions targets and claimed the economic case lacked evidence.
National security was again the order of the week in the House of Commons, as the Conservatives were granted two more Urgent Questions on the ‘Chinese spy case’, with the Solicitor General and Security Minister both questioned on the role of the Attorney General and the Home Office in the collapse of the case. The Diego Garcia Military Base and British Indian Ocean Territory Bill also completed its passage through the Commons, with opposition from the Conservatives who argued it will be detrimental to national security. The Government also came under pressure over the grooming gangs inquiry, with Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch focusing on the topic in PMQs, accusing the Government of creating a “toxic environment for survivors” and calling for the Safeguarding Minister to be sacked.
The Renters’ Rights Bill is now awaiting Royal Assent, after the Commons voted to agree with amendments from the House of Lords. Peers also spent numerous hours debating the Planning and Infrastructure Bill again, spending over 15 hours over Tuesday and Thursday on Report Stage. Peers also voted to suspend Baroness D’Souza from the House for 8 weeks after she wrote the Met Police Commissioner about speeding offences she had been charged with on headed House of Lords paper.
With just over a month to go to the Budget, Demos have released a report setting out how to communicate the importance of tax rises to the British public. Drawing on public attitudes, the report evaluates how different people respond to different messages around tax, outlining how, in an environment of low public trust, the Government must reframe the narrative to provide a clear rationale that avoids alienating the public from the decisions that affect them.
In a similar vein, YouGov’s latest data helpfully highlights which tax reforms Britons are actually willing to back. Polling suggests that, despite facing tough fiscal choices and a manifesto promise not to raise taxes on “working people”, Rachel Reeves may find comfort in public backing for targeting the super-rich instead. Three-quarters of Britons support the Green Party policy of a wealth tax on assets above £10m, while 69% favour a mansion tax on homes over £2m. More than half also support reforming council tax to reflect property values and linking tax thresholds to inflation. Other ideas, like higher employer NI for foreign workers or merging income tax and NI, divide opinion, while scrapping different income levels to replace them with a “flat” tax ranks last.
‘Cheaper Power 2030, Net Zero 2050’ should replace the Clean Power 2030 mission, according to a new publication by the Tony Blair Institute. The report warns that in a changing global context, current plans risk higher costs, increased instability and a loss in public confidence. Recommendations include: recalibrating the clean-power plan to ensure affordability; considering reforms to the Contracts for Difference system to reduce costs; implementing radical planning reform; and accelerating the use of AI within NESO and the National Grid to unlock efficiencies and make low-carbon adoption easier for consumers.
In typical Trump style this week, the US President marked No Kings Day, a nationwide protest that saw thousands flood Times Square and streets across the US under banners declaring ‘Democracy not Monarchy’ and ‘The Constitution is not optional’, by posting an AI generated video of himself flying a 'King Trump' jet dumping faeces on No Kings protesters. Subtlety has never been Trump’s preferred mode of communication, and even though it’s not the first AI-generated video he’s posted, it’s quite the response…Some would say should yourself defecating on America might not be quite the image he was going for.
Not even Boris Johnson can escape the lure of AI, as the former Prime Minister revealed in an interview with Al Arabiya English that he uses AI to help him research and write books. He also admitted that he enjoys the steady stream of compliments that he receives from the AI chatbot, including when it tells him his questions are ‘clever’ and ‘brilliant.’ One does wonder whether if ChatGPT was around when he was in office, he would have tried to run the UK using it too. That aside, we’re a bit obsessed with how he pronounces AI and ChatGPT.
And finally, if you’re an Oasis fan you might want to keep your eyes pealed for further gig tickets next year... some might say the Minister for Housing and Local Government Baroness Taylor of Stevenage caused quite a stir this week when she seemed to reveal the band would be playing five nights at Knebworth House next summer. Despite die-hard Oasis fans hoping the band will be live forever after sell-out gigs this year, the Minister was quick to U-turn, telling the BBC she was speaking “hypothetically following speculation”. Now whilst July might seem half the world away, politics moves quickly so don’t look back in anger and say we didn’t give you the heads-up. After that slip of the tongue, we’re sure the Minister will be hoping the story is quick to fade away….
And the answer to this week’s Quiz Question – Which two leading politicians stood for election at the Bromey and Chislehurst By-election in 2006? – now Leader of Reform UK Nigel Farage (coming third for UKIP with 8% of the vote) and now Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves (coming fourth for Labour with 7%)
