Putin on Ice | GDP.3 | A for Effort

Charles Fletcher
August 15, 2025
7
min read
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The Other Meeting: Keir Starmer and Volodymyr Zelenskyy take tea in the Downing Street garden ahead of the Trump-Putin summit

Driving the Week

Europe is on edge ahead of the Trump-Putin Summit, as the two leaders prepare to meet in Alaska for the first time since Trump returned to office to discuss a deal on the war in Ukraine. The meeting in Anchorage is set for 20:00 BST, with Trump stating his intention to see it result in a ceasefire between Moscow and Kyiv. European leaders were cautiously optimistic following a Zoom summit on Wednesday between the US, UK, Ukraine, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Finland, NATO and the EU, during which Trump apparently agreed that any territorial concessions on Ukraine’s part would not be negotiated over its head (Zelenskyy has made clear that any ‘land swaps’ are a non-starter), and that security guarantees for Ukraine would be included in any deal. To maintain momentum, Keir Starmer then hosted Zelenskyy for breakfast at Downing Street the following morning. Despite concerns about Trump’s unpredictability, he has insisted that he will not let Putin get the better of him, telling reporters on Thursday, “I am president, and he’s not going to mess around with me.” Meanwhile, Moscow has largely kept quiet, declining to comment on speculation around stalled frontlines, territorial arrangements, or potential resource deals with Washington. Although European leaders may feel somewhat reassured by this week’s engagement with him, Trump’s chaotic negotiating style and his questionable bromance with Putin means anything could happen.

The Week in Stats

50,000 – number of people that have crossed the Channel in small boats since Labour came to power

0.3% – the UK’s economic growth rate between April and June

75.3% – UK employment rate for people aged between 16 and 64 years, according to the latest ONS stats

33.4C – the peak of the UK’s fourth summer heatwave experienced this week

28.3% – proportion of this year’s A-Level grades which were A or A*, up from 27.8% last year

11,000 – number of no-fault evictions over the last year, despite Labour’s manifesto pledge to ban them

6% – proportion of Brits who believe they have a nemesis, according to YouGov polling

In Case You Missed it

The National Service of Remembrance took place today at the National Memorial Arboretum in Staffordshire to mark the 80th anniversary of Victory over Japan Day and the end of World War II. The King and Queen were in attendance, as was the Prime Minister and the Japanese Ambassador. At 9pm tonight, hundreds of buildings will be lit up to mark the occasion.

It’s been crime focused week for the Government, as it announced that ten new live facial recognition vans will be rolled out in England, as part of its plan to increase neighbourhood policing. Under strict rules, the vans will only be rolled out where there is specific intelligence and will be used to help law enforcement locate criminals wanted for serious crimes including sex offences, violent assaults, homicide and serious and organised crime.

Interim guidance was also issued from the National Police Chiefs’ Council, encouraging police to disclose the ethnicity and nationality of suspects charged in high-profile cases, with the disclosure to take place where there is ‘misinformation or disinformation leading to community tensions’, and a ‘significant level of media or social media interest.’

The Home Office added 15 new countries to its ‘deport now, appeal later’ scheme, which allows the Government to send foreign nationals who commit crimes back to their home country before they can appeal the decision. Bulgaria, Kenya and Malaysia are among the nations added to the scheme.

AI will also be used to help tackle crime, as DSIT announced £4m in funding for AI for experts to develop a real time and interactive crime map spanning England and Wales, to detect, track and predict where knife crime is likely to occur and spot warning signs of anti-social behaviour. It’s hoped the prototypes of mapping will be developed by April next year.

Speaking of AI, Jade Leung has been appointed as the Prime Minister’s new AI advisor. Leung is currently CTO of the AI Security Institute and will work ‘closely with the Prime Minister’ to harness to opportunity that AI brings.

Defra also made a big appointment this week, as Paul Kissack became the new Permanent Secretary. Kissack is currently the Group Chief Executive of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation and Joseph Rowntree Housing, and will take over from interim Permanent Secretary David Hill in October.

Over at the Treasury, three new non-executive directors have been appointed to help ensure the Department runs ‘as efficiently as possible’. They are Former Chairman of John Lewis Sir Charlie Mayfield, venture capital firm Northstar Ventures Chair Edward Twiddy and strategic communications advisory firm Apella Advisors co-founder and former BBC Economics Correspondent Jenny Scott.

In good news for the Treasury, the UK economy grew by 0.3% between April and June, a figure slightly higher than expected but below the 0.7% growth seen in the first three months of the year. The services and construction sectors made the largest contribution to growth. The ONS also reported that job openings fell by 5.8% between May and July, with the unemployment rate at 4.7%.

To celebrate, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves visited Northern Ireland, where she went to a virtual production studio and a defence site. The visit followed the £310m funding announced in the Spending Review for Northern Ireland’s City and Growth Deals.

Regional growth was also on the agenda in England, as the DfE announced that every region in England will benefit from a Construction Technical Excellence College, as the locations were announced earlier this week, including Derby College Group, Exeter College, and the Dudley College of Technology. They are supported by £100m and are expected to train over 40,000 future builders, bricklayers, electricians, carpenters and plumbers.

And for the young people taking a different route, a record number of 18-year olds secured their first choice university, with A-Level results announced yesterday. 28.3% of all grades were A or A*, and 82% of offer-holders got their first choice. Boys also outperformed girls for the first time since 2018.

Finally, in sad news, Welsh politician Hefin David died suddenly at the age of 47. He was first elected to the Senedd for Caerphilly in 2016, and his partner was Further and Higher Education Minister Vikki Howells.

Polls and Think Tanks

Ahead of the anticipated Trump-Putin meeting, new YouGov polling revealed that 66% of the public think it likely that any peace deal would leave Russia in control of some areas of Ukrainian territory, an outcome that most Brits (57%) would react negatively to. And the public are increasingly sceptical that a peace deal will be agreed, with just 35% believing it likely that the US and Russia will agree a deal between themselves in the next few months for an end to the war – down from 55% at the beginning of this year. Additionally, 65% of Brits said they thought that if Ukraine were to accept a peace deal, Russia would launch another war against Ukraine within the next 10 years.

With fraud on the rise in the UK – now accounting for 40% of all crime – RUSI released a paper looking into the issue, focused on the role of money mules in facilitating APP fraud and the implications for national security and financial crime prevention. Recommendations include ensuring all parts of the payments ecosystem are engaged in data-sharing initiatives, and closer collaboration between law enforcement and the private sector.

Building beautiful council houses was the topic of Policy Exchange’s new report, as they called for ‘a new generation of exemplary council housing that will restore the traditional, humanist social and design ideals that marked the early iterations of English public housing.’ By doing so, the report argues this will help solve the issue of affordability within the housing crisis, as well as supporting disadvantaged people and providing growth, prosperity and social mobility.

You’ve Got to Laugh

JD Vance thought a quiet Cotswolds holiday might escape the spotlight. Not a chance. A van sporting a notorious meme of a bald Vance has been doing the rounds in Charlbury, courtesy of political campaign group ‘Everyone Hates Elon’ keen to remind Vance that free speech includes a very British sense of humour. The same image reportedly got a tourist banned from the US earlier this year (Customs and Border Protection denies this, naturally). In a turn for the Orwellian, Cotswold locals have also reported police knocking on doors, asking residents to hand over their social media handles to the VP’s security detail (again a claim that has been firmly denied by both forces).

Still, Vance found time to soak up some local culture with meetings alongside shadow ministers Robert Jenrick and Chris Philp, philosopher-turned-culture warrior James Orr, and a “cracking” barbecue featuring Apprentice pillow tycoon Thomas Skinner (no shorts or flip flops allowed), with MP Danny Kruger also in attendance. Notably absent from the guest list was Kemi Badenoch, who cited ‘diary clashes’. There was no such issue for Nigel Farage, who was treated to a breakfast summit the next morning.

And then there was Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who joined Vance for a spot of carp fishing at Chevening, only to later admit he didn’t have a rod license, blaming an “administrative error”. No fish were caught. Except, arguably, Lammy.

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