Paint it Red: Andy Burnham launches his leadership / parliamentary campaign as the Labour candidate for the Makerfield by-election. © PA Images / Alamy Stock Photo
And so the scene has been set for what is to be one of the most significant and closely watched by-elections in recent – or perhaps ever – political history. With the writ formally moved for the Makerfield by-election on 18 June, the starting gun has now been officially fired. Labour confirmed Andy Burnham as its candidate following Josh Simons’ resignation, paving the way for the Greater Manchester mayor’s anticipated return to Westminster. Reform UK moved quickly to select Robert Kenyon, the self-employed plumber who placed second to Simons in the constituency at the 2024 general election, while the Conservatives have selected former Mayor of Wigan Michael Winstanley to contest the seat. Unfortunately for the Greens, their candidate Chris Kennedy withdrew just nine hours after being announced on Thursday morning, after he was found to have shared social media content describing the attack on Jewish ambulances back in April as a “false flag”. The Lib Dems, perhaps sensing this isn’t their moment, have plumped for local councillor Jake Austin. In short: choose your fighter.
The opening exchanges of the campaign have already offered a clear and not exactly surprising indication of how both the frontrunners intend to frame the contest. Setting off on the campaign trail, what better place for the Greater Manchester Mayor to address his Makerfield constituents than Leeds? Burnham spent much of the week at UKREiiF and, while his attendance was already expected in his mayoral capacity, he used the conference to highlight Manchester’s achievements under his leadership and argue that a vote for him is “a vote to change Labour, because Labour needs to change”. Launching his campaign, he spoke of the need for an economy that works for everyday people, the country’s largest council housebuilding programme, and a care system that puts people before profit. Doesn’t exactly sound like a pitch from a candidate looking to become a backbench MP, huh? Meanwhile, Reform’s Robert Kenyon has cast himself as the anti-politics candidate, having released a slick campaign video highlighting his background as a plumber while attacking “career politicians” and portraying the constituency as little more than a stepping stone for Burnham’s own ambitions. Burnham’s own video, by contrast, leaned heavily on his long-standing ties to the area. Both candidates, however, will still have to face off the Official Monster Raving Loony Party’s leader and co-founder Alan "Howlin" Laud Hope at the ballot box – an uphill battle for Burnham indeed…
2.8% – April’s inflation rate, down from 3.3% in March.
171,000 – net migration to the UK in the year to March.
3 – the number of representatives in the Welsh Parliament per 100,000 people, compared to just 1 in the UK Parliament.
5% – the new rate of VAT for eligible activities under the new ‘Great British Summer Savings’ scheme, lasting from 25 June to 1 September.
£6.6bn – the amount of public money written off in losses from 2024-25, according to a report from the Public Accounts Committee.
2 – the number of First Minister’s Questions sessions to take place each week in the Scottish Parliament going forward.
51 – the number of vape shops located on just two streets in Manchester, as MHCLG announced new powers for councils to deal with dodgy high street shops.
£60-260bn a year – the cost of climate change to public welfare by 2050, according to the Climate Change Committee’s new report ‘A Well-Adapted UK’.
HS2 may not open until 2039 and could cost an eye-watering £102.7bn, the Transport Secretary announced this week. She also unveiled a report by former National Security Adviser Stephen Lovegrove on the project, which provided recommendations for the Civil Service and wider public sector on how to learn lessons from the debacle. Moving to counter those opposed to HS2, she also warned it could now cost as much to cancel the scheme as it would to complete it.
The Prime Minister confirmed a widely-expected move to extend the fuel duty cut until the end of the year, as he sought to lessen the impact of spiking prices on drivers. The duty on red diesel, widely used in the agricultural sector, was cut by a third. Both the Conservatives and Reform claimed responsibility for forcing the “U-turn.”
In less welcome fuel-related news, the Government quietly permitted changes to imports of some Russian gas and aviation fuel, amidst fears of a fuel crisis over the summer. Following a swift (and totally unsurprising) backlash, it rowed back and promised to introduce the changes more gradually, although it denied it amounted to the “waiver” that the US introduced on Russian fuel last month.
The Treasury went further in its quest to drive spending this summer with a new Great British Summer Savings Scheme, which will cut VAT from 20% to 5% on several family activities including amusement parks and attractions in August. Children under 25 will also get free bus tickets in the month, with the scheme costing £300m in total.
Both supply and demand got a boost, as the Treasury also announced even more changes to how major infrastructure projects can be subjected to judicial review. The changes would allow Parliament to designate and approve the most important clean energy projects as being of critical national importance, and include the introduction of a fixed legal challenge window for all other nationally significant infrastructure.
The UK agreed a wide-ranging free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council, which comprises Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, removing duties worth an estimated £580m a year on UK goods. Trade Minister Chris Bryant called the agreement, which is the first between the GCC and a G7 nation, ‘one of the most ambitious’ deals the GCC has ever concluded. Negotiations with the bloc began nearly four years ago.
The S-word was thrown around as the Government faced accusations of socialist central planning when reports arose that it was preparing to coerce supermarkets to keep down the cost of staples. Ministers quickly sought to squash the reports, which the chair of M&S had labelled “preposterous”.
Two by-elections in Scotland will also take place on 18 June, although they will be overshadowed by a certain contest in Makerfield. Both were triggered when SNP MPs Stephen Flynn and Stephen Gethins won election to Holyrood and stood down from Westminster. The Tories are eyeing Flynn’s former Aberdeen South seat hungrily, while the SNP are likely to hold Gethins’ Arbroath and Broughty Ferry.
The National Crime Agency launched a new High Street Organised Crime Unit to tackle the ‘criminal networks operating in plain sight on Britain’s high streets.’ The NCA reckons that over £1bn is laundered through high street businesses like mini-marts, barber shops, vape stores and sweet shops every year.
The Ministry of Justice released its Youth Justice white paper, under which parents could face tougher action if their children commit a crime. It also seeks to reduce the number of children in secure custody by 25%, due to the high correlation between a stint inside as a child and reoffending as an adult. It could also end lifelong disclosure requirements for childhood offences and create a new child criminal exploitation offence.
A new ‘Neighbourhood Guarantee’ was launched, which will ‘set clear expectations of local, regional and national government.’ This will include basic public service provision, cleaner streets, and better-maintained public spaces, with a digital tool tracking progress also set to be rolled out.
New guidance on single-sex spaces was finally issued, over a year after the Supreme Court ruled that the terms ‘sex’, ‘man’, and ‘woman’ refer exclusively to biological sex, but that trans individuals are still protected under the Equality Act. The new guidance aims to clarify the law for service providers in what has become a political and social minefield.
The IMF increased its growth forecast for the UK from 0.8% to 1%, but warned ‘domestic uncertainty could also add to the already volatile global environment, holding back consumption and investment decisions.’ Whatever could they be referring to.
Executives involved in the Grenfell tragedy could face prosecution as the latest progress update on the tower’s remediation was released. The Met Police confirmed it will submit evidence to the CPS by the end of September, with nearly 60 individuals and 20 companies potentially facing charges.
Parliament half-heartedly returned for its one week of sitting following the local elections and ahead of next week’s half-term recess. The main business across both the Commons and the Lords were debates on the content of the King’s Speech, providing ample time for both MPs and peers to relish in the sound of their own voices and deliver their attack lines – although not all succeeded, such as when Robert Jenrick’s tirade was sent awry by Lib Dem Max Wilkinson.
Beyond the talking shop, the Government introduced a flurry of Bills promised in last week’s King’s Speech, including the Sporting Events Bill, the Social Housing Bill, the Health Bill, the Financial Services and Markets Bill, the Commercial Payments Bill and the Civil Aviation Bill.
This week saw one of the highlights of the parliamentary calendar with the Private Members’ Bill Ballot, which sees 20 MPs have their names drawn from a hat and the top seven allocated time for a Bill of their choice to be considered. The Tories’ Desmond Swayne came first, while number two, Labour’s Lauren Edwards, indicated she was open to reintroducing an assisted dying Bill, which Kim Leadbeater brought forward last year when she won the draw.
Re-appointed First Minister of Scotland John Swinney announced a “leaner, more agile government”, with just 8 Cabinet Secretaries. Click here to download our high-res organogram.
There were three more PPS resignations this week, as Steve Race and Rosie Wrighting both resigned from the Department of Health and Social Care, with Wrighting giving her backing to Streeting in any leadership contest. Luke Charters resigned as PPS in the Department for Business and Trade on Thursday evening.
Several PPS appointments were also made: Laura Kyrke-Smith moved from MHCLG to DHSC; Oliver Ryan also joined the DHSC team; Chris Vince replaced Kyrke-Smith in MHCLG; Johanna Baxter has joined the FCDO; Lauren Sullivan was appointed to DSIT; Lloyd Hatton has entered DSENZ; and Elaine Stewart is now a PPS in the DWP.
With three by-elections confirmed for 18th June, several candidate selections took place this week. In Makerfield: Andy Burnham was cleared by the NEC and selected as the Labour candidate; local plumber and Wigan councillor Robert Kenyon is fighting the seat for Reform UK; the Lib Dems announced professional fundraiser Jake Austin will run for them; former mayor of Wigan Michael Winstanley goes to bat for the Tories, and businesswoman Rebecca Shepherd is hoping to join Rupert Lowe as a Restore Britain MP. The Green Party are expected to announce their candidate next week after their previous candidate, Chris Kennedy, withdrew his candidacy on the same day.
In Scotland, the battle for John Swinney’s old seat has begun, with the SNP announcing former MP for Gordon Richard Thomson as their candidate; the Conservatives fielding newly re-elected MSP Douglas Lumsden; and Reform UK announcing Jo Hart will run for them. In the Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election, the only candidate announced so far is the SNP’s Lara Bird.
MP for Sherwood Forest Michelle Welsh was appointed as the Government’s National Maternity Advisor, with the role to focus on safer staffing, stronger accountability, continuity of care, tackling inequalities and improving culture across the system.
Bob Blackman has been re-elected as the Chair of the Backbench Business Committee having chaired the group since the General Election.
Lee Anderson’s got a new gig at Reform UK, taking over from David Bull as the Party’s Chairman.
Ken Stakes takes the job of Interim Leader of the Welsh Labour Party, with 6 of the 8 other Labour MSs being appointed to his team in the Senedd
Helen Ghosh has been appointed as the Chair of the Office for Environmental Protection, taking over from interim chair Julie Hall on 1 June.
Michael Plaut has been appointed to the Crown Estate Board, with responsibility for Wales, serving a four-year term.
Lisa Tremble has been made a Non-Executive Director and Chair of the Executive Leadership Board at the Department for Work and Pensions, supporting the department’s skills agenda.
Former British High Commissioner to Australia Sarah MacIntosh was appointed as the UK’s Ambassador and Permanent Representative to the United Nations at New York, succeeding Barbara Woodward.
The UK has a new Ambassador to Mongolia as Edwin Samuel will take up the position from July.
With immigration remaining a top issue for voters, how many people are actually coming to Britain every year? Don’t ask the public, says think tank British Future – according to their research, while net migration fell substantially to 171,000, 49% of people thought it had increased, and only 16% believed the numbers went down. British Future called the findings indicative of a ‘striking disconnect between reality and public understanding’, also noting a substantial gap between the estimates of people opposed to immigration and those more in favour.
You should learn to start worrying even if you already love the bomb, according to a new report from Policy Exchange which argues that Britain needs to bolster the credibility of its nuclear deterrent in a more dangerous world. The paper called for the UK to regain ‘sub-strategic nuclear forces’ (that is, weapons smaller than those already carried by its nuclear-armed submarines) and to ensure that it retains critical skills at the Atomic Weapons Establishment, the facility responsible for building British nuclear warheads. The report also advocated strengthening demonstrations of Britain’s resolve when it comes to its nuclear deterrent, as well as working alongside other NATO members to support the alliance’s overall nuclear posture in the context of increasing doubt over the United States’ commitment to help defend Europe.
Labour could win a general election with Andy Burnham at the helm, according to a More in Common survey. The poll suggested that the embattled governing party could see an eight-point boost if Burnham became leader, even eking out a three-point margin over Reform UK, with 30% of the vote to Reform’s 27%. The survey saw the Tories remaining around the 20% mark, with the Lib Dems on 11% and the Greens on 7%, potentially losing up to half of the voters they had picked up from Labour. No pressure then, Andy…
With his premiership teetering on the edge, Keir Starmer claimed a genuinely historic breakthrough this week: a trade deal with North Korea. As MPs briefly wondered who would be appointed Trade Envoy to Pyongyang, and the Business Secretary whether he had missed a rather important meeting, the Prime Minister swiftly corrected the record to explain he had in fact meant a previously agreed deal with South Korea - prompting amusement across the House and from Starmer himself.
Ever signed up for something and instantly regretted it? Conservative MP Desmond Swayne knows the feeling, having been drawn first in the Private Members’ Bill ballot, despite previously writing in a blog that each year he “hoped like hell” to avoid precisely that outcome. Swayne, an MP since 1997, described his success as a “disaster” and that he had already been inundated with suggestions for what to introduce. Goes to show, maybe you shouldn’t always listen to the Party Whips.
